“There’s no added risk of a quake on March 20 or any other day, and I think people do not realise the disharmony and the discomfort that is being given to a lot of people in the Christchurch regions by [predictions],” he said yesterday. "There are repercussions for shouting 'fire' in a crowded cinema.". Kevin Reed’s thoughts on the power of one second! Mr Ring, a fishing commentator, has become a source of heated debate in New Zealand in recent weeks due to his earthquake predictions, which are … Ken Ring's Almanac failed to predict either the July or August 2011 extreme polar blasts that hit NZ. The furore over John Campbell’s interview with earthquake predictor Ken Ring this week really exposed a strong anti-science vein running through New Zealand that even we here at Sciblogs, seasoned from hand to hand combat with the anti-vax lobby, homeopaths and evolution deniers were surprised at. While Gray has become a popular character among those who favour alternative theories, he doesn't have any qualifications in the field of seismology, or related scientific fields. In 2018 there were 4305 aftershocks, and in 2019 there were 3400 aftershocks, within the aftershock forecast area shown in the map below. US-based Dutchsinse - real name Michael Yuri Janitch - says he has created a formula to predict the location and magnitude of earthquakes. He terms his predictions "alternative weather" and has authored books about the weather and climate. “Certainty as to a particular event or outcome just cannot be achieved. NZ Herald Home. Gray did not respond to requests for comment. His Wikipedia page says he was also a musician, actor, clown, speech therapist, private tutor to children with learning difficulties, teacher of English as a second language, part-time teacher's college lecturer, and co-author of a book about reading cats' paws (he said this one was a joke). KEN RING’S EARTHQUAKE WARNING FOR 20 MARCH 2011 IN NZ If what Ken Ring says is true, the forecast catch includes Taupo and Auckland, which will affect the Waikato River, expecting 14 Dams within this catchment to collapse, which will flood out lowlands of Hamilton – Ngaruawahia – Huntly between 17-22 March 2011, and a month following this. Ring publishes almanacs each year for New Zealand, Australia and Ireland in which he provides weather predictions for the entire year. Provided the input are correct, the output is damning – there is no correlation. If you're wondering, the book's called Pawmistry and can be purchased on Amazon for 1 cent. Well, after March 20, according to Mr Ring, it won’t be over. On Tuesday, Mr Ring predicted “potential for serious earthquake activity today in Japan”, four days after the massive 9.0 Sendai quake that triggered destructive tsunamis along the coast of Japan. Starting at the top, Sir Peter Gluckman, chief science adviser to the Prime Minister has rubbished Mr Ring’s claims. "If you make enough predictions, eventually you're going to get lucky," he said. Instead he posted on Facebook as to why he would not be interviewed by mainstream media. Does the fact Canterbury shook again five and a half months later prove his methods are correct? The problem came when their predictions provoked fear, Hyde said. "Moon man" Ken Ring has been claiming he can predict earthquakes for years but he recently took a step out of the limelight and isn't doing any media interviews. "Occasionally people will get lucky with a single prediction, but if someone can reliably and accurately predict future events then there's a chance they're onto something," he said. He’s further pinpointed April 18 and the year 2020 as future earthquake dates. Ken Ring’s weather forecast for Ireland for 2020 - Advertisement - This year may see higher rainfall totals than normal, according to Kiwi long-range weather forecaster, Ken Ring. The 2020 New Zealand Earthquake(pronounced "TWENTY-TWENTY", also known as theAlpine Fault Quake and the 2020 South Island Quake) is a magnitude 8.7 earthquake that will occur on the Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island at 11:31 (local) on Thursday, June 18th, 2020. "Unfortunately Gray believes in so many different ideas that are not only far fetched but at times also contradict each other, it's hard to work out how the dots connect.". He says Mr Ring is the “very embodiment of… cargo cult science – someone who does some of the things scientists do, but fails in the most defining characteristic by not honestly testing his theories against data”. His New Zealand almanac covers 64 towns. In order to predict an earthquake, the person needed to give the date, the location (more specific than South Pacific), and a magnitude, he said. GeoNet's Ristau said it was impossible for man to create a quake like that experienced on November 14. Gray first stumbled into the world of earthquake predictions via his interest in geo-engineering and weather modification. "The level of evidence he seems to require in order to accept an idea is very low.". Takapau man Nigel Antony Gray is the new kid on the block when it comes to claims of successful earthquake predictions. His so-called prediction was picked up by international media, including the Daily Mail, the Sun and the Mirror in the UK. Gray went from about 600 followers on his Weather Modification Facebook page before the quake, to more than 6000. "As a Painting Trade Contractor I have spent several years checking the weather reports, almost daily, on a need-to-know basis," Gray wrote in an online post. The Alpine Fault runs almost the entire length of the South Island. While most shrugged off the December 13 prediction, and wrote the November 14 forecast off as good luck, some took the prediction seriously and got to work stocking up. Over late December, and throughout January, Queensland suffered some of the worst flooding in its history, resulting in 35 deaths (Toowoomba, pictured right, was hit hard). More ominously, the report is that Russian scientists have confirmed the independent analysis of New Zealand mathematician and long-term weather trends forecaster Ken Ring, who predicted the deadly earthquake in Christchurch (N. Zealand), and this week issued a new warning that the new earthquake should strike around 20 March. GeoNet seismologist John Ristau said large earthquakes regularly struck in the South Pacific. Hyde said Ring made general predictions and waited until an event happened then drew a target around it. I had a visual of a bird with overgrown feet/legs and a large beak. But it’s perhaps worth noting that for Galileo, way back in the early 17th Century, the establishment which repressed his ideas and sentenced him to house arrest was the Roman Inquisition – at the behest of the Catholic Church –not his fellow scientists. "There's actually no way humans could set off earthquakes like that," Ristau said. He is a painter decorator, who is an owner and director of two businesses - Quality Painters Company and Prosperity Acquisitions, according to Companies Office records. Sunshine totals may be below normal, except in the south and south-west. On November 6, 2016, Nigel Antony Gray posted a "heads up" about a major earthquake on his Facebook page. At that point, Gray was a little-heard-of painter and decorator from Takapau in Hawke's Bay. KEN RING'S EARTHQUAKE WARNING FOR 20 MARCH 2011 IN NZ. Ristau said it took a lot of training and experience to understand earthquakes. With his dubious track record though, one could hope he singles out popular doomsday date December 21, 2012 for his next ‘prediction’. Ring claims he predicted the Christchurch 2011 quake. According to GNS Science’s online earthquake record, that hour was one of five that day there were no quakes at all. Let’s start with the establishment – in particular, the Government. For days that combine several factors of new moon/perigee etc, he missed out on several predictions and nothing unusual happened on those days. ​Honeychurch said the strength of any ability to predict future events was repeatability. 9.7K likes. Well, only if his other predictions are also on the money – otherwise he just got lucky. Predictions 7-7-17 Earthquake.. New Zealand.. between the two land masses… destructive. In the year after the M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake there were over 20,000 aftershocks. Dr John Beaven, crustal dynamics geophysicist at GNS Science says: “A simple analysis… of aftershock occurrence and the phase and distance of the moon shows that there is no obvious correlation between these parameters and the occurrence of large aftershocks.” Exactly the same format of what the books used to comprise. But not all – there was no mention of the September 4 quake until September 8, when he said there would be another “coming in six months”. FAIRFAX NZ … But to others – as TV3’s own John Campbell vividly illustrated – he’s a dangerous fool, a charlatan barely a step removed from astrologists and telephone psychics, instilling unwarranted fear into the poor folk of Christchurch. May will see the last of winter frosts and some fine weather but cool" - Ken Ring reveals his weather predictions for 2019. Gray cited the full moon and Prime Minister John Key's abrupt resignation as justification, and suggested the shake could hit the east coast of the North Island. Mr Ring’s other Twitter predictions don’t get much better. In fact, Christchurch has had aftershocks measuring at least 3.5 almost every single day since September 4, despite Mr Ring saying in October that they would end “probably around the end of November”. ... in the UK, tornados, extreme weather events around the world and stronger activity in the Pacific Ocean around the Ring of Fire. CREDIT: SUPPLIED. Ring produces annual weather almanacs for New Zealand, Australia and Ireland through his business Predict Weather. So far for 2020 there have been 2687 aftershocks located. The question asked by US scientists back then was why hadn’t they learned their lesson about pseudoscientific earthquake predictions. In the prolonged drought of 1862, Jupiter and Saturn lined up on one side of the sun in that year. On November 18 he suggested the Auckland Santa Parade should move from the planned date of November 28 to December 5, as it’s going to be “wet wet wet”. CREDIT: FACEBOOK. Ken Ring offers services for farmers, councils or corporates, weather for a family reunion or a single forecast week to week. It’s not often such extravagant claims are made in the mainstream, let alone get the following Mr Ring has corralled in recent weeks. The very next one he made was that Canterbury would suffer another quake on October 1. How far in advance? A scroll through his Spiritual Awareness social media page is almost like a session of staring up at the clouds. Ireland is on the eastern edge of this antic… The exact magnitude, epicenter, and depth of the quake might be revised within the next few hours or minutes as seismologists review data and refine their calculations, or as other agencies issue their report. Since his claim he predicted the September and February Canterbury quakes ahead of time, and his warning of a quake “for the history books” on March 20, it’s been a question on the nation’s lips. On February 27, Mr Ring said a “jolt” was “possible” in Christchurch between 3pm and 4pm. However, experts say Gray's November 14 prediction wasn't really a prediction. CREDIT: FAIRFAX NZ. Dr Smith told the National Business Review that Mr Ring’s predictions are “mumbo-jumbo nonsense”. The world's top seismologists are yet to figure out how to predict earthquakes but a couple of Kiwi amateurs reckon they've cracked the code. He said he was just trying to prepare people for the earthquake he believed would strike. If what Ken Ring says is true, the forecast catch includes Taupo and Auckland, which will affect the … To some, Mr Ring is a prophet, a man whose ideas have been shunned by the establishment like those of Galileo. Dr Mark Quigley, senior lecturer in active tectonics and geomorphology at Canterbury University, says Mr Ring’s March 20 warning is “opportunistic and meaningless self-promotion during a time of national crisis”. On his personal Facebook pages he had posted articles about conspiracies ranging from topics such as chemtrails (spraying of chemicals from commercial airliners), fluoride, 1080 and glyphosate, through to "wacky ideas" such as the moon landings being faked and Michelle Obama being born a man, Honeychurch said. Luckily, the scientific community has also not been quiet on the matter. So who are these men who claim to do what the world's top scientists cannot? Long-range weather expert Ken Ring predicted Fijis devastating tropical cyclones in his New Zealand Weather Almanac 2016, which was published in July 2015. Ken Ring's Almanac failed to predict the extreme weather event which struck Hobsonville, Auckland on Dec 6th, 2012. The strongest quake to hit that day measured 6 – a decent shake under normal circumstances, but weak compared to aftershocks recorded on Monday and Wednesday. He acknowledges some research has shown small correlations between tides and “smaller, shallower continental earthquakes and ‘solid earth tides’,” but that, “typical earthquake-induced stress changes are about 100 to 1000 times greater than those induced by the tides”. “Consider this: Ken Ring’s probability of getting a prediction correct based on perigee/apogee new moon/full moon for 2010 was 63 percent. Predictions on 11-8-15 New Zealand Earthquake Spirit what prediction is coming next? During a TV interview about his predictions, broadcaster John Campbell yelled at Ring. At the time, Gray told media his intention wasn't to scaremonger. Long-range weather forecaster Ken Ring has shared his distinctive predictions for the coming summer months across the country. "You've got to be open-minded but you've got to be careful it's not so open your brain falls out," she said. Read Vine's Prediction Here: Psychic Prediction about Earthquakes and Extreme Weather. He now has about 30,000 followers on the renamed Spiritual Awareness New Zealand. Hyde said these men's theories should not be discounted at face value - maybe someone will get it right one day. According to Geonet, the strongest shake Christchurch had that day measured 3.8 – less than one they had just yesterday – 4.0 – which Mr Ring didn’t predict. Ring has backed out of the limelight in recent times and did not respond to requests for an interview. David Winter, an evolutionary genetics PhD student at the University of Otago who has taken on Ken Ring before, thinks not. Gray caused another stir by predicting a shake would hit on or about December 13. 3 News weather presenter Mike Hall reported that evening it was a “springtime Sunday well worthy of summer”, and Auckland was going to have “another fine and warm one” the following day. It seems as good an indicator as any nothing will happen. This message was followed by the prediction about the earthquake: In 3 to 4.. the earthquake is coming.. soon.. its big. Britain's Craig Hamilton-Parker says Aotearoa can expect a "serious earthquake" in 2018, which he believes will be part of "a general increase in seismic activity worldwide" next year. These predictions would not be released to the public, to avoid scaremongering. Ken Ring – genius ahead of his time or a complete fraud? “We are too impressed by occasional ‘hits’ and tend to forget the many ‘misses’ which outweigh them.” Includes snow diaries, significant events, fishing calendar, gardening guide, earthquake diary, all instantly downloadable. Thousands of people fled the city in fear. The techniques Gray used in his life improvement seminars are based on Scientology. The New Zealander has singled out specific periods which, he asserts, may experience the finest conditions; plus, he also marks his cards for periods of significant weather breaks. NZ Skeptic's Vicki Hyde. "This is just a possibility, but be alert, that is all I am saying.". Mr Winter weakens Mr Ring’s theory further with a graph showing the total strength of quakes recorded each day between September 4 and February 22, matched with the moon’s monthly phases. Ring lives in the West Auckland suburb of Titirangi and makes his money forecasting the weather. So is there any validity at all to his moon-based methods, or is it just lunacy? Infact ,October 2020 ,prediction is already tgereon my blog However, there are... Japan Earthquake.8.9 and tsunami-11th March 2011 . He claims the New Zealand Government is not only controlling our weather (using chemtrails and chembombs) but also creating earthquakes using a microwave transmission installation called HAARP (High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program). He then predicted another big quake would strike on March 20. Click here to ... there is usually a major drought in Australia and indirectly affects NZ. He told That’s Farming that due to heavy rain, winds and a high tide, mid-January may be subject to floods in the northwest and south. While Gray may be the newest kid on the block, he's not the first Kiwi to claim he can predict earthquakes. A large Atlantic anticyclone will bring dry, cool weather in a north-westerly airstream, the forecaster predicts. He’s become a household name in New Zealand. That’s 230 out of 365 days that fall on some day that he would argue influences earthquake activity. Pictures of blue sky and what Gray and his followers refer to as chemtrails are peppered throughout his Facebook feed. Dear Roger I have not stopped from posting my predictions. 7:02 The 25 will be lost to this. Ken Ring: Can he actually predict earthquakes? ACC Minister Nick Smith has a PhD in geotechnical engineering and a background in landslides and earthquake engineering. end quote. In mid December, Ken Ring tweeted that Queensland, Australia, would have a “mostly dry” January. 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He went on to say he had "strong evidence" to suggest the Kaikoura earthquake was "deliberately caused" and there was a plan to create another devastating earthquake using "electromagnetic frequencies" off the East Coast and Cook Strait. He says his career as a painter makes him qualified to comment on weather, earthquakes and geo-engineering (we'll get to this soon). There had been examples of very small quakes being caused by fracking in the United States but the government had no means of creating a significant quake. On December 12, petrol stations, especially those in Gisborne, were brimming with customers who were worried the big one would hit. The facts on 7-11-17: Reported by Washington Post –“WELLINGTON, New Zealand — A strong earthquake struck Tuesday in the ocean south of New Zealand’s main islands, but there were no reports of serious damage or injuries and there was no threat of a tsunami. Weak frontal systems will bring cloud and patchy light rain at times. What therefore may happen, can only be described in terms of risks and probability.” The Beautiful Teachings of Sufism and the Sufi Saints. Gray during one of his seminars. nzherald.co.nz. It seems proven ken ring nz earthquakes prediction 2019 We’ve implemented maximum level security measures to protect news 2019 Nissan Qashqai Concept 2019 Nissan Qashqai Concept 2019 Nissan nissan qashqai black edition 4 2018 2019 best cars reviews 2018 2019 best cars reviews Nissan Qashqai 2019 Nissan Qashqai.. Now Takapau man Nigel Gray is giving Ring some competition. READ MORE: * Earthquake: there's no evidence the moon causes quakes * Why quakes weren't caused by seismic blasting or 'unzipping' faultline. He found a slight effect of the moon’s distance from Earth in the region of 2 percent – enough to very slightly affect the potential strength of a quake, but not cause one. According to NZPA, a group of geologists, alongside earthquake engineers, skeptics, Dr Smith and host of TV3’s The Nation,Sean Plunket, will be having lunch on the Port Hills(pictured right) to quell “unfounded fears”. The Secretary of Defence, Helene Quilter, responded with a brief letter saying the ministry did not hold any information about supposed geo-engineering, weather modification or man-made earthquakes and had no reason to believe the information requested was held by any other government organisation. Meanwhile when ken ring nz earthquakes prediction 2019 It looks and sounds … Ken "Moon man" Ring is well known in New Zealand, with his wide-brimmed hat and moon-related earthquake predictions. Mr Winter points out that the earthquake Mr Ring predicted was at least five times stronger (7+ in magnitude, as opposed to 6.3), and that taking into account Mr Ring’s own prediction covered 10 days (February 15-25), giving his other predictions the same leeway ends with more days Christchurch residents need to be earthquake-ready than not. Ring has been a well-known fixture in New Zealand for some time now, and also flew to fame off the back of disaster. In the end the parallels between the shonky earthquake predictor who terrified the US Midwest in 1990 and Ken Ring currently putting a ring around March 20 on his calendar are incredibly strong. The 55-year-old claimed the supermoon made a large earthquake a possibility. It seems proven ken ring earthquake predictions 2019 april 1 2017 gmc nonetheless its new deluxe crossovers and the most popular sierra 1500 pickup drive the restrictions of its utilitarian image 2019 gmc sierra 2500 hd rumor and release date 2019 GMC Sierra Denali Off-Road Review: Is It Luxurious. Moon Man Ken Ring, who has predicted a large earthquake in Christchurch next Sunday, is refusing to comment on a "non-event" gathering planned in the city. Ferries are running, Air NZ will distance passengers, bus company InterCity has cancelled all trips until May 29, and all long-distance tourist rail will remain shut down. Science writer and former NZ Skeptics chair Vicki Hyde said Ring's background was quite common for someone who claimed to be able to predict future events based on trends or patterns they believe others have missed. “Even if the moon is sometimes the straw that breaks the camels back at a particular fault, you couldn’t use the moon to predict an earthquake unless you already new a fault was about to go,” says Mr Winter, “i.e the moon could only predict earthquakes when you could already predict an earthquake.” Now Takapau man Nigel Gray is giving Ring some competition. According to his Facebook page, Ring has been unwell recently and is taking some time off. The Missouri man now has 185,000 subscribers to his YouTube channel, as well as multiple Facebook pages and a website dedicated to his predictions. He did not tweet or write anything on his website about the possibility of a quake in Japan beforehand, despite his claim they can be predicted far in advance. Psychic Predictions for 2020, World Psychic Predictions By Leading Australian Psychic Medium Vine. Ken "Moon man" Ring is well known in New Zealand, with his wide-brimmed hat and moon-related earthquake predictions. “Frankly, what Mr Ring is doing is no better than people crying fire without cause in a packed stadium or picture theatre.” Before he was a self-appointed weather forecaster and earthquake predictor, Ring was a maths teacher and later became an educational magician, known as Mathman. That’s 230 out of 365 days that fall on some day that he would argue influences earthquake activity… Should we evacuate an area every time the moon is on its closest approach, is full or new, is moving rapidly, is at its maximum declination or is crossing the equator?” When the November 14 quake struck Kaikoura, Gray shot to notoriety. On December 1, Gray submitted an Official Information Act request to the Ministry of Defence: "I would like to know if you have attempted to investigate warfare or terrorism being conducted on New Zealand by means of geo-engineering (creating earthquakes) or weather modification?". Level 2 - What can you do? Premium Auckland Wellington Christchurch. Many of his supporters would argue Mr Ring, who prefers to call his predictions “opinions”, is only warning of elevated risks – but do they stack up against the evidence? Consider this: Ken Ring’s probability of getting a prediction correct based on perigee/apogee new moon/full moon for 2010 was 63 percent. People who claim to be able to predict earthquakes are not unique to New Zealand. The earthquake hit early morning on Tuesday 8 December 2020 at 1.52 am local time at a moderately shallow depth of 45.1 km. Unlike traditional meteorological services, Ring claims to be able to predict the weather years in advance (rather than the standard three-day window where a weather forecast is considered likely to be accurate). NZ Skeptics chairman Mark Honeychurch said Gray appeared to have been interested in conspiracy theories for several years now. Some parts of New Zealand are more likely to experience severe earthquakes than others. While Gray's painting business appears to be his main source of income, he also offers services as a "life improvement consultant". … Ken Ring - Long Range Forecaster. Auckland-born weatherman Ken Ring has made his latest predictions for the coming Northern winter, forecasting a white December for Ireland. The colours on this map indicate the likely severity of shaking in different areas – in technical terms, the ground motion which has a 10% chance of occurring within 50 years. Thursday, 03 December 2020. Long-range Kiwi weather guru - Ken Ring - is predicting that snow will arrive in Ireland after Christmas and into January - the last part of which is dry and freezing. Even the world's top seismologists didn't entirely understand the physics of earthquakes - something that was necessary to predict quakes. He also uses his Spiritual Awareness Facebook page to plug a fuel saving product he sells in New Zealand, called Clean Turbo. Headlines that preceded the predicted December 1990 earthquake As one commenter on … He has been advertising his seminars, along with other Scientology-related events and programmes, to his 30,000 Facebook followers. Ristau said in his opinion there was "no credibility" in linking moon or lunar phases to earthquakes. Ken Ring's Almanac failed to predict March 2012 weather bomb that hit much of the lower North Island. 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